{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "date": "2026-09-20",
  "source_commit": "5be207f479c4a2185c7f60db2b6d474d59f99a14",
  "baseline_commit": "b8d32393a5f37d20e7c4f98920e453e57c421d4b",
  "scope": "Hand-constructed synthetic serving fixture; local and undeployed; no real model or data evaluation",
  "source_identity": {
    "algorithm": "SHA-256 of UTF-8 source after CRLF-to-LF normalization",
    "files": {
      "backend/research_ranking.py": "62e2201d9a447452e8cba6ec0ed0304cacc8fa08eaaf6c4f102e417b3d3ce318",
      "backend/research_rank_eval.py": "75a473d7be2c4b9102741f773041c8a1e3e8681eaa0c341c3a28b77755b387d6",
      "backend/research_v3_serve.py": "0f8c3f682a645e9b6896345950f4ecb6007d12acc738e24d934f605f0c05ad33",
      "backend/research_validity.py": "1167e44a2a776fe9c684486a9ea53ab29474f91f8d0a7301e58d15efa558382a",
      "backend/research_contract.py": "8b393754e0e6fdaaa4b553c7c3bb21cc1dfb6599c49bbb2d77b00a5956dcb211",
      "backend/tests/test_research_ranking.py": "1b7213ea5207c55796c9b61eb99db8475b6a308f57ebdea46de7e68e0f0cfc05"
    }
  },
  "ranking": {
    "formula": "p / (1 + 20 * volatility)",
    "probability_min": 0.55,
    "volume_min": 5000,
    "volume_unit": "Items traded in a daily observation; serving uses completed daily observations, not the four-hour forecast or five-minute source interval",
    "tie_break": "Score descending, then item ID ascending",
    "current_time": "Source interval completed, source age within limit, forecast target still in the future; upstream validity also required",
    "nonfinite": "Rejected before calibration or clipping",
    "selection": "Eligible rows are ordered before top-k and before attaching outcome labels; missing labels do not trigger backfill",
    "baseline": "Spread ordering on the same model-eligible universe; conditional comparison, not an independent test of the gates"
  },
  "fixture": {
    "kind": "hand_constructed_synthetic_only",
    "decision_ts": 1800000000,
    "top_k": 2,
    "rows": [
      {
        "item_id": 1,
        "volume": 5000,
        "source_start_ts": 1799999700,
        "rank": 1,
        "decision": "Selected in top 2",
        "probability_raw": 0.800000011920929,
        "volatility_raw": 0.009999999776482582,
        "served_score": 0.666666679084301
      },
      {
        "item_id": 3,
        "volume": 5000,
        "source_start_ts": 1799999700,
        "rank": 2,
        "decision": "Selected in top 2",
        "probability_raw": 0.800000011920929,
        "volatility_raw": 0.009999999776482582,
        "served_score": 0.666666679084301
      },
      {
        "item_id": 2,
        "volume": 5000,
        "source_start_ts": 1799999700,
        "rank": 3,
        "decision": "Eligible, outside top 2",
        "probability_raw": 0.8999999761581421,
        "volatility_raw": 0.03999999910593033,
        "served_score": 0.49999999172157705
      },
      {
        "item_id": 4,
        "volume": 5000,
        "source_start_ts": 1799999700,
        "rank": null,
        "decision": "Probability below 0.55",
        "probability_raw": 0.5400000214576721,
        "volatility_raw": 0.009999999776482582,
        "served_score": 0.45000001955777413
      },
      {
        "item_id": 5,
        "volume": 5000,
        "source_start_ts": 1799985300,
        "rank": null,
        "decision": "Forecast expired",
        "probability_raw": 0.949999988079071,
        "volatility_raw": 0.009999999776482582,
        "served_score": null
      },
      {
        "item_id": 6,
        "volume": 4999,
        "source_start_ts": 1799999700,
        "rank": null,
        "decision": "Daily volume below 5,000",
        "probability_raw": 0.8999999761581421,
        "volatility_raw": 0.009999999776482582,
        "served_score": null
      }
    ],
    "display_order": [
      1,
      3,
      2
    ],
    "spread_baseline_top_k": [
      2,
      3
    ],
    "presentation": "Probability and volatility are raw fixture inputs. Served scores follow serve_items: item 4 retains a finite score but fails rank eligibility; time/liquidity gates clear scores for items 5 and 6. Other served prediction fields on gated rows are withheld."
  },
  "verification": {
    "owner_suite": {
      "passed": 234,
      "skipped": 78,
      "independently_rerun": false
    },
    "independent_coordinator": {
      "passed": 45,
      "scope": "31 synthetic ranking checks and 14 serving-validity checks",
      "source_hashes_verified": 6
    },
    "totals": "Overlapping checks, not additive totals"
  },
  "limits": [
    "Baseline compares ordering conditional on model eligibility, not independent gate value",
    "Hashes and complete cohort declarations are consistency checks, not proof of prospective provenance",
    "No performance acceptance threshold or inferential confidence interval",
    "Synthetic outcome scores intentionally omitted; fixture explains selection, not profitability or predictive quality.",
    "No real evaluation, fitting, model deserialization, prospective collection, public deployment or new compatible model.",
    "Historical results and dated evidence remain unchanged."
  ]
}